Growth
Our Earnings Growth Leading Indicator suggests around 6-7% growth during 2007, with the sources and detractors to growth extremely concentrated.
House prices are adding 9 percentage points to growth but energy prices are subtracting roughly the same amount.
This means that where the battle will be fought is housing.
If you compare the consensus of analysts to our EGLI forecast, our feeling is that consensus numbers look aggressive for software, autos, semis, media, and household and personal care.