Καλημέρα,
Τα πράγματα δεν είναι τόσο απλά, Σπύρο.
Υπάρχουν τα futures και τα forwards και η διαφορά τους είναι η εξής:
While futures and forward contracts are both a contract to deliver a commodity on a future date at a prearranged price, they are different in several respects:
Forwards transact only when purchased and on the settlement date.
Futures, on the other hand, are rebalanced, or "marked to market," every day to the daily spot price of a forward with the same agreed-upon delivery price and underlying asset.
The fact that forwards are not rebalanced daily means that, due to movements in the price of the underlying asset, a large differential can build up between the forward's delivery price and the settlement price.
This means that one party will incur a big loss at the time of delivery (assuming they must transact at the underlying's spot price to facilitate receipt/delivery).
This in turn creates a credit risk. More generally, the risk of a forward contract is that the supplier will be unable to deliver the required commodity, or that the buyer will be unable to pay for it on the delivery day.
The rebalancing of futures eliminates much of this credit risk by forcing the holders to update daily to the price of an equivalent forward purchased that day. This means that there will usually be very little additional money due on the final day to settle the futures contract.
In addition, the daily futures-settlement failure risk is borne by an exchange, rather than an individual party, limiting credit risk in futures.
Example for a futures contract with a $100 price: Let's say that on day 50, a forward with a $100 delivery price (on the same underlying asset as the future) costs $88. On day 51, that forward costs $90. This means that the mark-to-market would require the holder of one side of the future to pay $2 on day 51 to track the changes of the forward price. This money goes, via margin accounts, to the holder of the other side of the future. (A forward-holder, however, would pay nothing until settlement on the final day, potentially building up a large balance. So, except for tiny effects of convexity bias or possible allowance for credit risk, futures and forwards with equal delivery prices result in the same total loss or gain, but holders of futures experience that loss/gain in daily increments which track the forward's daily price changes, while the forward's spot price converges to the settlement price.)
Futures are always traded on an exchange, whereas forwards always trade over-the-counter, or can simply be a signed contract between two parties.
Futures are highly standardised, whereas some forwards are unique.
In the case of physical delivery, the forward contract specifies to whom to make the delivery. The counterparty for delivery on a futures contract is chosen by the clearinghouse.
Some exchanges tolerate 'nonconvergence', the failure of futures contracts and the value of the physical commodities they represent to reach the same value on 'contract settlement' day at the designated delivery points. An example of this is the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade)Soft Red Winter wheat (SRW) futures. SRW futures have settled more than 20¢ apart on settlement day and as much as $1.00 difference between settlement days. Only a few participants holding CBOT SRW futures contracts are qualified by the CBOT to make or receive delivery of commodities to settle futures contracts. Therefore, it's impossible for almost any individual producer to 'hedge' efficiently when relying on the final settlement of a futures contract for SRW. The trend is the CBOT continuing to restrict those entities who can actually participate in settling contracts with commodity to only those that can ship or receive large quantities of railroad cars and multiple barges at a few selected sites. The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission - a regulatory agency headed by a political appointee), which has oversight of the futures market, has made no comment as to why this trend is allowed to continue since economic theory and CBOT publications maintain that convergence of contracts with the price of the underlying commodity they represent is the basis of integrity for a futures market. It follows that the function of 'price discovery', the ability of the markets to discern the appropriate value of a commodity reflecting current conditions, is degraded in relation to the discrepancy in price and the inability of producers to enforce contracts with the commodities they represent. (
εδώ)
Και ως εκ τούτου διαχωρίζονται ως εξής:
futures = προθεσμιακά
forwards = μελλοντικής εκπλήρωσης
Δες και
εδώ στο τέλος της πρώτης παραγράφου.